Originally Posted by RedsManRick
I'll be interested to see how PECOTA handles him. But I think it's actually reasonable given his statistical track record. He won't likely to continue his 17% HR/FB and his 27% K rate is pretty ugly.
It really comes down to sustaining his power production.
Sounds like they are saying that the Reds are DOA to me. Unless the GM finally gets something done.
They don't have much in the way of OBP do they?
AVG OBP SLG
Willy Taveras .260 .309 .320
Chris Dickerson .247 .336 .394
Drew Stubbs .235 .305 .348
Paul Janish .239 .310 .340
Joey Votto .293 .372 .500
Brandon Phillips .276 .327 .446
Scott Rolen .283 .352 .439
Jay Bruce .251 .315 .459
Laynce Nix .249 .302 .456
Jonny Gomes .243 .328 .471
Ryan Hanigan .267 .347 .357
Corky Miller .243 .328 .361
Adam Rosales .248 .314 .394
2010 ZiPS Projections - Cincinnati Reds
With the shackles of a one-dimensional offense led by base-clearing Adam Dunn fallen off, the Reds developed a flexible, aggressive offense, featuring the electric leadoff hitter Willy Taveras at the stop of the runner and even the home-run hitters, Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto able to run the bases a bit, especially Phillips. With red lights turning green, the Red offense would Billyball the team to 90 wins when combined with the improved pitching staff. Wizened manager Dusty Baker does his best job yet, integrating rookies with veterans and making sure everyone has their proper playing time.
An upopular 12-year-old boy is chased into an old building by other kids that wanted to beat him up. Inside, the boy finds a magic radio and inside, is a gigantic African-American genie named Kazaam. Kazaam grants the boy wishes, including junk food falling from the sky, until the boy is kidnapped by the owner of a nightclub. Kazaam finds the boy dead, but sacrifices his genie powers to bring the boy back from the dead and everyone lives happily ever after.
Which scenario is more plausible? It's close, but my money is on Shaquille O'Neal's 3rd-best movie being closer to a gritty depiction of modern life than the Walt Jocketty-developed dreamscape.
Truth be told, the Reds at least have a good bullpen and some useful starting pitching, even with the true projection for Edinson Volquez being in the neighborhood of "0-0, 0.00" than the projection given below. The Red offense is still a mess and the team didn't make much of an effort to try new things or answer questions for 2010 outside of "try every player on the roster at shortstop!" after making Plans A through Z at the position a mediocre player that missed the entire 2008 season. There's a type of team that Dusty Baker can probably manage pretty well. The Reds, with questions and various options all over the place, are pretty much the worst type of team for Baker to have.