Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo
Well let me just ask you this Doug, how much weight do you give ceiling? How little weight do you give proximity to the majors? Do you try to give them equal billing? Do you try not to give ceiling way too much weight? Where do you draw the line and why?
It depends on the player, but ceiling certainly plays a factor for me. Its why I hardly rate relievers high because I just don't see them providing a ton of value. Proximity to the majors matters of course, but its only a small part of the overall picture. I am more concerned about what a guy does when he gets to the majors rather than when he does. Where proximity comes in is how far they are along (and closer to reaching their potential in most cases) with their skills.
An example of how I weigh ceiling is that with guys like Billy Hamilton or Yorman Rodriguez. They are premium athletes with incredibly high ceilings. I give their ceiling a bit more weight than a guy like Chris Heisey, who doesn't have nearly the same ceiling as those guys. On the flip side of things, Heisey also has a much higher floor than either of those guys and that also gets weighted in my thinking. There is a whole lot that goes into how I rank prospects, but the thing that I give the most weight to is how I project them as major leaguers.