Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo
Just curious does that ranking 1-5 match your 1-5 ranking off the top of your head? I did the top 10 and it lowered Alonso & Soto a few spots raised Wood and Francisco up a few spots and Valaika and Cozart settled in both lower.
I think as you chronicled throughout there still is alot of subjectivity in doing this exercise but it is easier to track and easier to manage. And we wouldn't want to exclude subjectivity alltogether obviously as it's our opinion. I think what this does is not overvalue a specific area over another thus giving us a truer rank. Maybe some would prefer to value ceiling more over say production and that's fine (and in fact doable just double or even triple your points in any particular category) but I think some might feel different and would prefer to give all areas equal footing. I think if we done this for the top 40 prospects it would radically change some guys later in the process for everyone.
As for your feelings on pitchers and their floors I would suggest that a players floor in my mind can include not playing major league ball at all whether they are pitchers or not (Francisco in my mind). It may be possible to add yet another category to Ceiling and Floor, say most likely level of player which is somewhere in between.
Thanks for taking part BF.
If I did the top 10, which I may go through and do, it may or may not change up the rankings. I think there still is a great deal of subjectivity as well as perception going on in these rankings. I think it is fairly easy to conclude that Joey Votto was the most valuable red this past season, but if you put him in some of these rankings he would be knocked a little because he plays 1b (but the ability to play LF) and also because he isn't perceived to have 40 hr power (lowering his ceiling). But at the same time I think it does a good job of giving credence to players who are close to cracking the big leagues. Unfortunately what is often forgotten with prospects is the high attrition rate amongst minor league players.
Here is what I learned from this exercise. Todd Frazier, if he has a major league bat, is a very valuable player. If he can play LF, RF, 2b, 3b, and 1b he may find himself at a different position every day, but his bat will be in the lineup every day.
I think Yorman may be the most important player in the Reds organization. His ceiling hasn't changed, but with him already making it to Billings his floor is starting to look better.
Leake may be a tad over rated as of right now based upon his draft slot as well as his position. It it truly what happens to prospects in rankings and it is something you should be cautious about.
I will contend that Alonso is one of the top 2 Reds prospects but I think this ranking falls in line with my thoughts on him. Nice player, not a wow player, right now he is blocked by the Reds best player. His progression through the minors hasn't done anything to spur on talk about him being a great one. In reality I think draft slot and hype is why Alonso is the top ranked prospect in the Reds organization. Unfortunately I think there are too many questions about Alonso that he needs to answer come Feb and March of next season.
Maybe when the top 10, 20, or 40 are done we should do this again and see where we rank the players. I think 20 may be a good number because I just won't know enough about prospects 20-40 to make a sound judgment.