Originally Posted by Bumstead
I could turn that around and ask you why you would rely on such a small sample size for a pitcher that isn't exactly young to be a prospect?
Part of it is I just don't believe that he can do it...my eyes again...crazy...There is that HR% (he was on Milton pace for HR's allowed) and if I'm reading the stats correctly (quickly) the GB% vs. FB% in Great America Ballpark is going to be a problem. Flyball pitchers go there to die.
It's my opinion, I'm not going to change my mind based on 40 IP for a pitching "prospect" that will be 26 years old on opening day. Shouldn't a 25 year-old be good at AAA even if he just has marginal talent and is facing inferior hitters in his 3rd season pitching in the league? I mean, I never said he wasn't smart.
I don't care about his age really. His time in the majors doesn't change how I feel about him. His stuff/control suggests he is a good bet to be a #4 starter. While I do think he will give up 30 HR a year because of his GB tendencies, that isn't a problem as much as it is for some guys because he does not walk guys. At all. Harang and Arroyo both give up a similar number of HR's and perform just fine because they don't walk batters, thus keeping the WHIP down and causing the HR's to score fewer runs.
Basically Maloney projects to be a guy who can pitch 180 innings, walk 40 batters, strike out 120 and give up 30 HR's. The HR rate is the only thing to be concerned about. Its going to be high. But the rest of his numbers are going to look good and its going to balance things out.