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Fangraphs Cincinnati Reds: Draft Review
Cincinnati Reds: Draft Review by Marc Hulet - December 2, 2009
General Manager: Walt Jocketty
Farm Director: Terry Reynolds
Scouting Director: Chris Buckley
2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-draft signees ($200,000+ signing bonus)
2009 1st Round: Mike Leake, RHP, Arizona State
1S. Brad Boxberger, RHP, Southern California
2. Billy Hamilton, SS, Mississippi HS
3. Donnie Joseph, LHP, Houston
5x- Daniel Tuttle, RHP, North Carolina HS
10x- Tucker Barnhart, C, Indiana HS
37x- Dayne Read, OF, Florida JC
The ‘09 draft infused some talent into the Reds system, as a number of the players listed above have shown enough to be considered amongst the organization’s top prospects. Leake did not appear in a game during the regular season, but he made six appearances (five starts) in the Arizona Fall League and had nice results. He was a little too hittable with 20 base-knocks allowed in 19.2 innings, but he showed solid control with just three walks. He also struck out 15 batters and showed a nice ground-ball rate. In a small-sample size, Leake struggled a bit more against left-handed batters, than those who swing from the right side, by allowing 12 hits in 9.2 innings of work. However, he induced more than twice the number of ground balls off the bats of lefties than off righties, so there could have been some bad luck involved.
Boxberger also appeared in the AFL, but with less successful results. The right-hander allowed a .333 batting average, along with seven walks in 12.2 innings of work. Two balls also left the yard against him. Right-handed batters hit .360 against him in limited at-bats. Hamilton actually appeared in some regular season games… 42 to be exact. He struggled with his bat and hit just .209/.257/.282 in 163 at-bats. He showed some impatience at the plate with a walk rate of 6.3% and Hamilton struck out far too much (28.8%) for someone that posted a .074 ISO. On the positive side, he showed good speed with 14 steals in 17 attempts.
Joseph had a very nice debut in both rookie ball (2.34 FIP) and low-A ball (1.80 FIP). Working out of the bullpen in low-A, the southpaw posted a walk rate of 4.35 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 13.50 K/9. Overall, he allowed just 19 hits in 32.1 innings. Joseph did not allow a home run. Tuttle had excellent results for a prep player receiving his first taste of pro ball. In rookie ball, the right-hander posted a 2.86 FIP during 32.1 innings of work. He allowed 32 hits and kept the walks to a minimum with a rate of 2.78 BB/9. His strikeout rate was solid at 8.35 K/9 and he has an outside shot of opening 2010 in low-A ball.
Barnhart appeared in just 14 games after signing and posted a .541 OPS in rookie ball. The switch-hitter did show some patience with a walk rate of 11.1% but he was hurt by a .256 BABIP and a small sample size. Read has yet to play a pro game. Outfielder Josh Fellhauer (7th round) also had a nice debut in low-A ball despite a .303 BABIP.
2008 1st Round: Yonder Alonso, 1B, U of Miami
3. Zach Stewart, RHP, Texas (Traded to TOR)
11x – Andrew Means, OF, Indiana
30x – Juan Carlos Sulbaran, RHP, Florida HS
35x – Matt Fairel, LHP, Florida State
Alonso was a solid No. 1 pick, although he had a modest ‘09 season… mainly due to injuries. He’s in the discussion for the Reds’ top prospect. The club forfeited its second-round pick due after dabbling in the free agent market, but it got excellent value in the third round with Stewart. The right-hander was flipped to Toronto in the puzzling Scott Rolen trade. Fairel had a solid first pro season in ‘09 and he ended the year by making eight starts in high-A ball where he posted a 3.26 FIP. The club has yet to see much return on its investment in Means, but Sulbaran has shown flashes of brilliance. The right-hander posted a strikeout rate of 9.71 in low-A ball, but he posted a 5.88 FIP and struggled with the long-ball (1.85 HR/9).
2007 1st Round: Devin Mesoraco, C, Pennsylvania HS
1S. Todd Frazier, 3B/OF, Rutgers
1S. Kyle Lotzkar, RHP, B.C. HS
2. Zack Cozart, SS, Mississippi
3. Scott Carroll, RHP, Missouri State
3. Neftali Soto, 3B, Puerto Rico HS
The club received a number of compensatory picks in ‘07 and it had a solid haul overall. However, the first pick of the draft for the Reds has not had much success, with Mesoraco’s bat having gone backwards since signing. In ‘09, the backstop hit just .228/.311/.381 in 312 high-A at-bats. He’s suffered from a chronically-low BABIP (which tends to plague slow-footed catchers) but he did show a 4% improvement (10.1%) in his walk rate over ‘08. He also saw his ISO increase over the past three seasons to .154. Mesoraco is still just 21. He’s bounced all over the field, but Frazier is on the cusp of making the Majors and he’s at the top of the Reds prospect list. Lotzkar has shown a lot of potential with a nice fastball, but he’s had those pesky injury problems that tend to haunt Canadian pitchers.
Cozart is another farmhand that has struggled with low BABIPs in his career, despite better speed, but he had a nice year in double-A and saw his walk rate increase almost 7% over ‘08 to 12.0%. He also stole double-digit bases for the first time with 10 in 12 attempts. Carroll’s career was slowed by a suspension and he came back to post a strikeout rate of just 3.12 K/9 in 40.1 high-A ball innings. He also received a two-game trial in double-A that did not go well. Soto’s ‘09 season was a bit of a step back but he is still loaded with potential and is just 20 years old. A .286 BABIP did him no favors; his ISO also dropped off to .114 and he has yet to show a willingness to take a walk.
Brandon Waring was an astute pick in the seventh round, but the corner infielder was packaged to Baltimore in the Ramon Hernandez trade.
2006 1st Round: Drew Stubbs, OF, Texas
2. Sean Watson, RHP, Tennessee
3. Chris Valaika, SS, UC Santa Barbara
16x – Jamie Arneson, LHP, California CC
Stubbs took a little while to turn his raw athleticism into baseball talent, but he graduated to the big leagues in ‘09 and should not return to the minors unless he struggles mightily with the strikeouts. Watson has been a disappointing pick in the second round with inconsistent performances, as well as control and weight problems. Valaika’s progression was halted this season with a bleak performance in triple-A. Arneson struggled to find the plate in his first three pro seasons and he did not play in ‘09.
Josh Roenicke (10th round) was a great fifth-year senior choice but he was sent to Toronto along with Stewart in the Rolen deal. Outfielder Chris Heisey (17th round) was another key choice in this draft and has made himself into a solid prospect.
Up Next: The Cincinnati Reds Top 10 Prospects
"Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."