Originally Posted by lollipopcurve
Viola + Del Rosario + Ondrusek (3 guys who WILL pitch out of the BP for the Reds, and perhaps well), 3 votes = Donnie Joseph, 3 votes (who might pitch out of the pen for the Reds)???
These rankings skew way too far toward the newly drafted.
Let's take a look at this underappreciated trio.
First up - Pedro Viola. Viola will turn 27 in 2010. That alone knocks him out of prospect status for me. Looking at the numbers from the last two seasons seals the deal. He can strike some folks out sure. But he also walks way too many for me - 3.9BB/9 in 2008, 6.0BB/9 in 2009. Is it possible that at age 27 Viola is going to suddenly harness his stuff? I think not likely at all.
Next up - Logan Ondrusek. Ondrusek turns 25 before the 2010 season starts which is the upper limit for me as far as calling a player a prospect. Ondrusek had a breakout 2009. A wonderful season which gives hope. But before 2009 he muddled along - for lack of a better term. His 2008 season showed an old-for-the-league Ondrusek getting lit up in a pitcher's league. He doesn't strike out a whole lot of batters and has only average control. Here is the kicker for me.
Before 2009 his BABIP was .316. In 2009 it was a ridiculous .208. (I figured out the BABIP using the formula in Wikipedia so I am sure it is fairly accurate)
Is that 2009 BABIP a mirage? I think it is.
Finally - Enerio Del Rosario. He also turns 25 in 2010 but after the season. Of the three, Del Rosario has posted the best minor league numbers. His K/9 rate is nothing special, but he isn't searching for the plate. He has fine control. I think this is important. However at age 21 his Billing numbers were subpar at best - 5.1 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9. He improved in Dayton at age 22 - 6.3 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9.
I hope all three of them pitch for the Reds in 2010 and beyond. And I hope they all pitch well. But I don't expect that will be the case.
I will admit to some degree of bias. I watched Donnie Joseph improve yearly at the UH. And in his first season as a professional he showed me plenty. Yes, he has a long way to go, but like most minor leaguers, if he continues to improve I think he will not only get there but he will make an impact. Only time will tell.