Originally Posted by Hoosier Red
Is it possible for fly ball pitchers to have success at GABP?
I don't want to get into the ideas of "rally killers" and the like but is it possible that although fly ball pitchers give up more "cheap"
home runs, they also get outs out of balls that would become hits and lead to bigger innings?
Just something percolating in my brain and I'm trying to piece together some statistical justification.
If say Cueto gives up X more home runs than a similarly skilled ground ball pitcher, how many fewer
hits would he need to give up to make up for it.
Maybe I'm over simplifying this in my own head but wouldn't opponents OPS tell you this? It still comes back to the basic premise of I don't care how you induce outs I care how often you induce them and how few total bases you surrender when you don't.
If I were the GM and commissioning my stat heads to do some research I wouldn't care so much about any kind of league average because batted ball tendencies are so defense dependent. I would want to know for this teams defense, in this park do all but the most effective fly ball pitchers face a real disadvantage? Can average fly ball pitchers survive or do I have to avoid them?
Just a quick scan of last years home splits show Rhodes for instance had the 3rd worst GB/FB ratio on the staff but the lowest OPSA. Obviously that's a small sample but intuitively I think it just comes down to how effective the individual pitcher is (along with the defense you put behind him) not the style with which he records outs.
Also, I don't know the exact method with which they compile the ball park effect stats but I can't help but think GABP's numbers would be inflated due to its short history and the type of teams that have called it home for that short history. They probably allow for that somehow but that's always been my concern when I hear GABP is a homer friendly park. A decade of Adam Dunn and company on offense with Miltonesque pitching would make Yellowstone look like a homer friendly park.