Originally Posted by TRF
I don't think Lincecum over Verlander is a wide margin. You could make the argument that they were quite comparable last year.
A health Santana, in the NL will post better numbers than Greinke.
Haren is a beast. So underrated. This is the first year I don't have him on a roster. Worst Jocketty trade ever. But Hughes and Scherzer while mostly potential at the moment can equal him. Both are high upside pitchers. Haren is the sure thing. I'm counting on a major step forward, especially from Hughes. Look at his 2009 numbers. He turned a corner big time.
I'm waiting for Carpenter's arm to fall off. Should happen any day now. In fact, I'm still trying to figure out how this completely average pitcher in the AL has become such a dominant presence in the NL.
I hate Chris Carpenter. I do like the X-Files though.
Verlander was great last season and is a legitimate top ten fantasy starting pitcher, but he's not in the same class as Lincecum. Compare their numbers from last season:
Lincecum - 2.48 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 261 K, 10.42 K/9, 2.34 FIP
Verlander - 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 269 K, 10.09 K/9, 2.80 FIP
They're about a wash when it comes to strikeouts but Lincecum decidedly better in every other statistical category.
In regard to Greinke vs Santana, I think Santana's steadily declining K/9 and steadily rising WHIP should be reason for alarm. Look at his three year progression:
2007 - 1.07 WHIP, 9.66 K/9
2008 - 1.15 WHIP, 7.91 K/9
2009 - 1.21 WHIP, 7.88 K/9
It's particularly alarming considering that Santana moved to NL in 2008 and most were predicting a modest bump in his peripherals given that he was moving to an easier league for pitchers. Compare that to Greinke:
2007 - 1.30 WHIP, 7.82 K/9
2008 - 1.28 WHIP, 8.14 K/9
2009 - 1.07 WHIP, 9.50 K/9
Even if Greinke isn't able to match his production from last season, I think he's likely to end up being better than Santana.