Originally Posted by dougdirt
Francisco swings like Sandoval does, but that is about where the comp ends. Sandoval makes a lot more contact, which means his average and OBP are going to start off a lot higher from the ground up. He also walks more than Francisco does.
I was surprised to see that in 2009, Sandoval was roughly league average in terms of contact rate. I assumed he'd be in the upper 20%. I think he's due for a fairly big batting average regression in 2010. His 20th percentile PECOTA seems likely to me: .298/.351/.473
I don't think Fransisco has contact issues, just plate discipline issues. I'm beginning to think of him as Wily Mo Pena with more development time and better hand-eye coordination. If he can simply learn to lay off the breaking stuff out of the zone (easier said than done, I realize...), his BB% will go up, his K% will go down, and he'll be an absolute beast.