Re: My take on Aroldis Chapman tonight
The reasoning for that scout's assessment was that Chapman hasn't yet developed the stamina to go major innings. It's not that his stuff is short; right now, his strength is. There could be any number of reasons for that.
1) It was cold in Louisville. When interviewed after the game, Chapman confirmed that was the coldest weather he had ever pitched in. That affects durability a great deal.
2) Chapman could be going through his dead arm period. Many Red pitchers seemed to hit that lull early in April; perhaps Chapman, because of the time off, hit his with this start?
3) Speaking of missing time, Chapman hasn't been stretched out and hasn't pitched many innings at all, especially over the past year and a half.
4) Perhaps Chapman was working on developing a cutter or trying to add more movement to his pitches (a la Leake) and wanted to take a few mph off his fastball to get more movement.
5) Perhaps the Reds told him to take it easy with his fastball and work on secondary pitches or simply to throw at less than peake performance.
In other words, while one start may tell us some things, it certainly isn't a harbinger of things to come, nor would it mean he isn't necessarily ready.
And, for the record, I do think Chapman could learn a few things in AAA.
The basics of covering the 1B bag.
Hitting and bunting.
Holding runners on.
(More importantly) better arm action on his change-up.
Better overall control. (Though that is improving.)
But a bunch of guys learn that stuff at the major league level. He's not going to set the world on fire, more than likely, at the major league level, but, if called up today, he'd be serviceable, if only because he has HOF talent in his left arm that cannot be taught.
"You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
-- Christy Matthewson
"Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
-- Leo Durocher