Re: Cliff Lee
I agree with the points already made -- I don't foresee Leake being shut down if he's healthy and effective. Counting his AFL innings, he can probably go 180-190 this year without setting off Verducci Effect alarms, to the extent anyone would still care in the heat of a September pennant race. Skip him a turn or three in the rotation throughout the season and he should be fine.
As for Lee, if I ran the Mariners I'd certainly wait until July and take bids from all comers. The Reds could win that if they're willing to dig deep enough into the farm system. But I'm not so certain that it's a pitcher the Reds will need most. I mean, if the pitching isn't solid (or better than solid, like it's been the last two weeks) for the next two months, are we even in position to be buyers at the deadline? The biggest missing piece might be an outfielder or a shortstop.
"I don't have a baseball team, I have a theological seminary." -- Charlie Brown