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Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
I'm saying I don't care if he isn't a finished product. Lee makes the Reds a lot closer to a WS contender than Bruce.
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For 2010 only. And I don't think Lee's WAR - Bailey's WAR is going to be THAT much greater than Bruce's - (Bruce's replacement). Lee is worth about 2-3 wins more than Bruce above replacement. But our replacement level SP is much better than our replacement level RF. So, optimistically, you're looking at a 2 win improvement in the regular season. Forgive me if I don't think that puts us in the playoffs.
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Put it this way: without Lee and with Bruce, then the Reds are certainly not a WS contender this year--or next year, or the year after that. Who knows when they will be? WS contention isn't currently inside this organization. Maybe they draft a Lincecum and get over that hump in the meantime, but I doubt it.
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This is just silly logic. So because a team isn't currently WS caliber, it should trade anybody and everybody on the team regardless of how good they are now and how much potential they have for a marginally increased chance at being good this year and this year only. That's a recipe for disaster.
If this was an 88-90 win team who just need 1 SP to put them over the top, you MIGHT be able to start making a case. But for a .500 team, this approach is how you end up with an 86 win 2nd place finish and a less talented roster moving forward. This strategy is akin to Dusty batting speedy, low OBP guys at the top of the lineup in hopes that he can get that SB, sac bunt, sac fly combo working...
If you want to talk Alonso, a guy Bruce's age who just made AAA, who has no defensive value, and who is blocked by an all-star, that would make sense. Bruce, not so much.