Originally Posted by Will M
#3 its possible the Twins/As model hasn't had more playoff success because they play in the AL. you have to get by the power house mega payroll teams to get a shot in the series. whereas in the NL the competition is better.
#4 Perhaps the Twins model hasn't done better because they lack the TOR starters needed for playoff success. well the Reds of 2010-2015 should have these guys.
Or it's possible that it hasn't worked out because 4 teams make the playoffs each year. Even with even odds, that's 4 playoff appearances for every WS appearance. With a little "bad luck" you could easily have a 25% chance of making the WS each time and have a Braves like run. Heck, if anybody had shut-down pitching it was the Braves and they only got to the WS once.
Nate Silver did a study
of this and found just 3 factors which had predictive value for making the WS, assuming you make the playoffs:
- A power pitching staff, as measured by normalized strikeout rate.
- A good closer, as measured by WXRL.
- A good defense, as measured by FRAA.
We can cite anecdotes supporting any argument we want, but people have tried to tease this out. You can give yourself a slight edge above & beyond what your won/loss record would suggest your chances are, but only a slight one.
Bottom line is your chances of making the WS if you don't make the playoffs is zero. If you can build and sustain a playoff caliber team, then you can start worrying about tweaking the composition of that team to better your odds in the playoffs. But you have to get there first.
Yes, the goal is to win championships. But worrying about tweaking the composition of your team to up your WS odds slightly before you even have a playoff caliber team is like debating what color to paint your house before you have a blueprint.