Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
The Twins' problem is that they went from ace to garbage in their starting pitching sequence.
Let's assume that the Twins had 50% odds of winning those games. We should have expected 9 or 10 wins. So they lost 6 more games than expected. Holding the overall quality of the team steady, how many more wins do we think they would have had given another ace? Johan lost more games than he won. So given them another ace who pitches 5 or 6 games. That gives them what -- 3 more wins? 4? 5? I think that's a stretch, but they're still losing more than they're winning. Does that win them a championship? That doesn't even get them to the championship. It maybe advances them to the 2nd round once.
Again, my point remains, 2 aces are better than 1. But it's an irrelevant detail if you aren't in the playoffs to begin with. Trying to build a specific type of team instead of just one that wins a lot is part of the reason this franchise has stunk for the last decade.