Re: Cliff Lee
Originally Posted by TheNext44
This ought to be fun.
Lee has a better K/BB rate, mostly due to his amazing walk rate, which is one fifth of his career rate. He also has given up only one homer, while Jimenez has given up 2. Considering one pitches mostly at Safeco and one at Coors, that's to be expected.
But really what this does is point out the major flaw in peripherals in general and FIP in particular.
Jimenez has been unhittable, as evidence by his absurdly low .229 BAPIP. Lee has a very normal .308 BABIP
Anyone who has watched Jimenez pitch can attest that it is not luck that is causing his low BABIP. No one is getting good swings off this guy, and he realized that he doesn't have to strike everyone out, he can just let them get themselves out with their weak swings off of his unhittable stuff.
I would not be surprised to see Jimenez maintain something close to this low BABIP all season, just like Pedro did when he was dominating hitters.
Lee is having a great year, but he has not been nearly as dominant as Jimenez. Yeah, if you ignore how hittable they each have been, then one could make a case for Lee being better so far. But I think that would not be fair or accurate.
Pointing to an unsustainable BABIP to argue examining peripherals is a flawed approach might not be the most unflawed approach.... Just sayin'
If the point is to predict who might have a better second half based upon true skill, Lee is a better bet.
"This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner