Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman
I know because when I look at Pedro's dominant seasons, he wasnt controlling BAPIP at all. They were random, some like .340, some .250 and everywhere in between. He's just a horrible example for the situation.
Ubaldo's BAPIP will regress significantly. He does enough other things well to continue being dominant.
Just because they varied year to year, does not mean they were random. There are many logical, rational explanations that are just as likely if not more likely than the "random" or "luck" argument to why there is such variance year to year. No offense, this is not aimed you or anyone directly, but I wish that some people who work in Sabermetrics would just take logic 101. It would eliminate so many useless arguments.
Anyway, here's one example... the one I have been giving.
These guys were on fire that season, and were unhittable... for that season.
This happens all the time in real life. People get into a grove and excel at something (selling cars, painting, lecturing, picking up women or men, figuring out math problems, doing their laundry...) for awhile, due to hard work and skill. However they are unable to continue this not because of luck or randomness, but because being great is hard to sustain. Especially in baseball, where there is an opponent trying to beat you, and adjusting to your excellence.
This is just one explanations, there are many others.
Just because a guy has one great year at something, but never again, does not mean that it was because of luck, or that it was random.