Originally Posted by jojo
Give a more credible explanation (than the sabermetric conclusion).... that's kind of the way to discuss this issue further. I don't think it requires a PhD.
Really the question is pretty straightforward. If the average pitcher can exert significant influence over BABIP, why can it (BABIP) fluctuate so wildly from year to year and why do dramatic departures from .300 over short stretches always regress back toward .300 as a sample grows? This is especially important to address given peripherals we know a pitcher can control such as K/9 and BB/9 are pretty repeatable absent injury and dramatic departures from the major league average can be consistently maintained (i.e. again just look at Pedro for instance).
It's not that it's difficult to understand, it's that it's long and tedious. If you had ever done any work with flow charts, you have some understanding of it, and flow charts are the easiest ways to work it out.
If you wanted, I could provide a detailed analysis of each season of Pedro's career, and provide logical, fact based explanations for the variance in BABIP, that don't involve luck or randomness. I really don't want to, so if I am not convincing, I'm fine with that.