Originally Posted by Hoosier Red
Even if the Reds don't sign Arroyo, and Travis Wood is a major leaguer, you still have three-four arms at AAA who are reliable options. How many do you need?
Grieneke or Haren? I'd move one or two. For a rental like Lee? I keep all of them. Here is why...
In 2003 17 different pitchers made starts for the Reds
Todd Van Poppel
4 came out of the Reds farm system. Just piles and piles of crap there.
In 2004 it was 11.
Jung Keun Bong
1 came out of the Reds System. Still just alot of crap.
In 2005 in was 9.
0 was from the Reds Farm System. 1 ML avg starter in that group/
!n 2006 it was back up to 11.
0 from the Farm System. 2 ML Avg Starters in that group.
So in 3 years, 1 developed farm hand (Acevedo) made a start for the ML club,
In 2007 it was 10.
1 was from the Reds Farm System. 2 ML avg starters once again.
2008 it was 10.
3 were from the Farm System 3 ML Avg starters in that group.
in 2009 it was 9.
2 were from the Reds Farm system... 5 ML Avg starters in that group
In 2010, so far... it's 7 with 8 on the way (Volquez)
5 from the farm system. 5 ML avg starters in that group. Soon to be 6. History dictates that this franchise needs 9 to 11 starters a year. This year seems a bit different, so this season would be the aberration. So you trade for Lee and give up Wood. At the end of the season. You let Lee walk for picks. Decline both Arroyo and Harang.
Your left with,
Volquez (on inning restrictions)
Leake (on inning restrictions)
Bailey (on inning restrictions)
Chapman (on inning restrictions)
LeCure are your AAA fall backs. Not really reassuring.
After that you have nothing. So now you get back into the Josh Fogg's of the world because you don't have the pieces to trade for a top shelf pitcher.
So what you need to trade for is what you gave up for 2 months of Lee and dust.
So do you overpay a quickly declining Arroyo or Harang for one more year? Handicap payroll by resigning Lee and lose one or more of Bruce, Votto, Cueto, Volquez or Phillps?
Or trade for a Haren for a Alonso, Valiquette and Bailey?
Now you only have to monitor 2 pitchers innings instead of 4. AAA now bolsters you with...
Even if you switch Chapman and Wood around, it still is a deeper more talented group.