Re: Reds Top Prospects- August 2010 Edition
Love these posts Beni.
My 2 cents. (Sticking to the higher levels)
1. Aroldis Chapman A-. The move to the pen may help this year, but the lack of IP in 2010 push his time at the TOR back. I think 2011 will now be a year where he may split time in AAA and the majors. I also am starting to wonder if the team is getting ideas of leaving Chapman in the pen. With Rhodes leaving after 2010, its tempting as a quick fix, but it sure makes him less valuable. Had he stayed in the rotation, his grade would be A+, with the pen move, I downgrade him to A-.
2. Devin Mesoraco B+. Doug was right and I was way-off about Mes. The Reds have gotten a lot from Hernandez and Hanigan in 2010, but put me down for going with Hanigan and Corky to start 2011 to save some cash and keep the path clear for Mes. I have hopes he'll be at least the 50% of the time guy in Cincy (sharing time with Hanigan) by June of 2011.
3. Zach Cozart B. He's the SS of the next 5 years IMO. Much better offense/defense mix than anyone we've seen in a while.
4. Donnie Joseph B-. As a reliever he looks awesome, but being a reliever prevents a higher grade. I'm hoping for a Cincy appearance at some point in 2011.
5. Yonder Alonso B-. He's raking now and could jump back higher, but he's blocked, the move to the OF appears to be a failure and the injury with pedestrian numbers afterwards combined with his obvious lack of career path suppress his trade value. As a 1B, its easy to be fooled by good offensive numbers. 1B is a position filled with hitters and a guy who could be a low to mid .800 OPS player is nothing to get excited about. Lyle Overbay, for example, is a nice bat, but he's not an all star and even with Yonder hitting now, he could very well end up in that category. Hard to be a top player at a position with Pujols, Votto, Fielder, Howard, Gonzalez, Dunn, Texiera, Morneau, Youkilis, Pena etc. A trade to an AL team where their seems to be more opportunity at 1b now and the DH spot to increase the chances seems like the best way to get max value. Lots of teams have good hitting young 1B.
6. Todd Frazier C+. Will have a nice career as a major leaguer IMO. Many still like him more than I, but he just seems a tweener to me. He hasn't really settled into a spot and while I think he can fill in almost everywhere, playing a position is different than playing it every day. I'm pretty sure he could play 1B or LF and be fine defensively, but the offensive bar is pretty high at those spots and I'm not sure that Frazier would be an asset there. 3B is his best chance, but since we haven't seen him play there on a day in day out basis, the jury is still out as an every day player. No doubt in my mind he'd do fine there if its one of the positions that he moves around to. I still think he can be a fill in at 2B and SS as long as he's not in there too much accumulating damage to the pitching staff. As a 300 to 350 AB guy who plays everywhere but C and CF, he can be a real asset, but I won't believe he's an every day player at a position until he shows it somewhere. The horrible start really wrecks his market value, but I still think he'll be a high 700s OPS guy who mixes in a year or two above .800 when his BABIP falls his way.
7. Juan Francisco C+. The most successful player on the list as a minor leaguer. Still huge questions if it can translate to the majors. Nothing left to do but give him a try IMO. His defense is a minus.
8. Matt Maloney C. He won't crack the Reds rotation but he could fill the back end for some team with competitive innings while always looking over his shoulder for better guys to pass him by. He's probably ready to do that some place and should have some trade value (especially as a guy who adds to a package as the token near ready starter).
9. Phil Valiquette C. Hard throwing lefties are rare. He's still young but been around long enough that he's now a sleeper.
10. David Sappelt C. A guy having a really good year who has the defensive abilty to get a look and is certainly hitting at AA. I had him pegged as Norris Hopper but his power this year likely means he's better than that. He's not Chris Heisey or Drew Stubbs IMO, but I wonder if he might just sneak-up on the majors. Shaun Cumberland had a big year in AA once, so I'd like to see him replicate this at AAA.
11. Chris Valaika C-. Similar to Frazier but a lot less power. He can get base hits though and might have enough glove to get by as an every day 2B, but his sudden lack of power would make it hard to put up with anything less than plus defense and he doesn't have it. He seemed to have more power at the lower levels. I wonder if it will reappear and bump him back up to a C or C+.
12. Sam Lecure C-. Similar to Maloney, but strikes me as less likely to hold onto a rotation spot, but more likely to successfully switch to middle relief.
13. Neftali Soto C-. Where does he play? He seems to be a 1B now and I'm not sure the bat justifies it.
14 Matt Klinker C-. Might be better than that. He's struggled in AAA and I need to see more to judge better.
15. The injury bunch. Guys I hold some hope for are Scott Carroll, Matt Fairel and Mace Thurman.
The no respect award: Danny Dorn. I'd list him no lower than 8th on this list, but he seems to be a guy who isn't in any plans so I left him off.
"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH
Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS
Last edited by mth123; 08-03-2010 at 05:33 AM.