Originally Posted by sivman17
we just have to win more games than them. I know this sounds obvious, but I think everyone is making a big deal out of this series. Yes, the Cards are 10-5 against us this season and outplayed us in every aspect of the game this series. But, we only play them 3 more times.
As I posted in another thread, if you remove the Reds-Cards games, the Reds are 19-18 against .500 or better teams, while the Cards are 23-20.
The Reds have 16 more games this year against .500 or better teams, and 31 games against sub-.500 teams. In total (including the Cards), the Reds are 24-28 against .500+ teams and 40-23 against sub-.500 teams.
Removing the Cards from the equation, these are the remaining games the Reds have against .500+ teams and the record against them so far this year:
LAD (3 more games): 3-3
SF (3 more games): 2-2
COL (4 more games): 2-1
SD (3 more games): 1-3
We are 8-8 against these teams this season, and we have 13 more games against them.
Of the remaining losing teams the Reds play, the Reds are 31-13 against those teams so far this season. Those teams are:
FLA (3 more games): 2-2
CHC (3 more games): 10-3
MIL (9 more games): 4-1
PIT (3 more games): 8-5
HOU (6 more games): 7-2
This means that we have 24 more games against teams in which we have posted a .705 winning pct thus far. The Reds also play 7 games against Arizona, whom the Reds have not faced yet this season. Arizona is 45-69, so I expect the Reds to beat up on them.
Obviously it's painful to watch the Reds lose to the Cards, who are our biggest competition, but in reality it doesn't mean a whole lot, unless we see them in the playoffs. But at this point, we can't worry about who we might face in the playoffs. The three remaining Cardinals games are in the first week of September, which means even that series won't play a huge part in the outcome of the division.
19 of the last 22 games are against sub-.500 teams.
If they play true to their winning pct against winning and losing teams so far, the Reds would go 7-9 against the remaining winning teams, and 20-11 against losing teams. This would be a 27-20 finish, which would put the Reds at 91-71 for the season. I know you can't predict remaining wins, but that's why it's called a prediction. I would be happy with a 91-win season, which I think is very reasonable. I also think it could give us a good shot at the playoffs.