Re: Interesting FanGraphs approach:
For some reason I see this series as relatively equal offenses (advantage Reds), and overall relatively equal pitching (advantage Phils). I think it will hinge on defense, limiting errors, stealing some bases and manufacturing runs without multiple hits, advancing runners (for the Reds limiting strikeouts with runners on base) and base-running. Do we advance a runner from first to second after he walks and pick up the big hit? Do we get runners home from third with the sac fly?
Look, I feel like a bear in a honey log. I have no expectations this year, and will not be disappointed with a losing outcome. But when you look at the stats and head to head this year, the Reds can win this series. Not going to the west coast is a good thing.