Originally Posted by JaxRed
How crazy is Stanton going to be next year or so? Between minors and major he hit 43 homers at age 20. In Sep he hit 8 homers, and hit .318
I still worry about his strikeouts. He was very young, but he also struck out 31% of the time he walked to the plate this year and walked just 8.6% of the time he walked to the plate. The walk rate is fine, but in context with the strikeout rate, it isn't all that good. Strikeouts were a concern in the minors as well, though he has always been young for his level (very young in some cases). He expands his zone quite a bit right now. Like our own Drew Stubbs, he also struggles to make contact on pitches within the zone, ranking 16th worst among the 304 players with at least 250 PA this season (Stubbs was 11th worst). He was the 9th worst in terms of contact on swings made at just 70.1% (for example, Stubbs was 16th at 72.2%). Now of course, Stanton is incredibly young.
Historically speaking though, Stanton campares like this to other players between 1960-now with at least 200 PA in a season at age 20 or younger (62 players - which means we are talking about a very elite group of players):
K% (K/PA):Worst among all players, 2 full % ahead of the next worst player (Justin Upton). With that said, the player at #5 on that list is Miguel Cabrera who has gone from 24.3% at age 20 to 14.7% this past season. Of course Cabrera also struck out just 16.4% in the minors compared to 26.7% for Stanton in the minors.
BB% (BB/PA):17th best, surrounded by guys like Ken Griffey Jr and Rickey Henderson.
IsoP: 2nd best, trailing just Bob Horner in 1978.
I think Stanton could go on to become great, or he could be a version of Justin Upton that has flashed of absolute greatness, but the high strikeout rate is going to continue to hold him back.