Re: "If Payrolls Decided Baseball Games" and other oddities
Originally Posted by kaldaniels
Fun but misguided in the structure.
Saying the Cubs should have gone 162-0...that just discredits the results. Maybe have it done using probability vis a vis payroll ratio between the 2 teams.
According to this a 161-1 Cubs team underperformed.
It's not trying to be be a "real" estimator how teams should perform based on a known correlation between wins and $$.
It's just a fun way to think about payroll. In fact, it makes the point pretty clearly that while payoll helps, it's hardly fate.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.