Re: 2011 Bill James Handbook predictions
Originally Posted by Will M
) now lists this data. Key Reds predictions are below.
Anybody know if this has been historically close or just voodoo?
319/413/577 Votto - slightly worse
280/352/517 Bruce - minimally better
277/356/456 Rolen - worse
270/324/428 Phillips - slightly worse
262/338/435 Stubbs - minimally better
281/370/377 Hanigan - much worse
232/308/335 Janish - much worse
275/336/478 Heisey - much better & better than Stubbs !?
259/339/465 Gomes - better
I actually think this looks pretty close to what I'd predict. Gomes and Heisey are both better than I'd guess (though if Gomes is limited to playing against LHP he'll be better than that). Drops predicted from Rolen, Phillips, Hanigan, Janish and even Votto point to the need for a bat in LF which this group evidently thinks might be Heisey/Gomes. I think Bruce will be a little better than this (primarily in the slugging dept). This is still too much slugging for Rolen IMO. I'm guessing he drops to the .425 range.
"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH
Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS
Last edited by mth123; 11-09-2010 at 03:49 AM.