Originally Posted by blumj
FWIW, I don't believe any of the projection systems are particularly reliable at projecting prospects or young players with little MLB experience.
This is very true. Most projection systems are often pretty solid at projecting what 80% of 1500+ PA hitters in the majors are likely to do the next year. We often have enough data on those guys to know what they are capable of and they are often old enough that large gains in production aren't likely. It is the guys without large enough sample sizes or guys that are really young that these systems are tough to predict with because their true talent level may not be evident in a smaller sample size because of their age or lack of experience.