Originally Posted by mth123
Assuming 2010 is a lost season, Ellsbury's 2009 had him with a .355 OBP and a .415 Slugging %. As lead-off guys go that isn't bad and a move to the NL should give those numbers a slight boost. The steals themselves mean very little IMO. I'd just as soon the guys at the top of the Reds order stay put and leave the big hole between 1B and 2B while guys are holding him on and not risk getting thrown out in front of Votto and Bruce (who are likely to drive guys in with extra base hits). Save all that risky running non-sense for the bottom of the order where they actually need to steal to help them get around the bases.
From that standpoint, I kind of agree about Ellsbury not being may favorite target, but what do you seriously think Alonso would bring back in a deal? He's a promising bat where most prospects are promising bats, nearly every team has one and even the ones that carry it to the big leagues are just ordinary unless they reach the upper echelon. Sean Casey was a really promising bat once upon a time and spent most of his career in the bottom half of regular 1B production. I don't see teams giving up a whole lot for Alonso and he's of no use to the Reds playing 1B in AAA. This is the year for the Reds to go for it. First good deal that comes along that improves the major league product, and Alonso should be on his way out of town IMO.
In 2009, Ellsbury was the 19th highest OPS lead off hitter (min 350 PA). And despite 52 stolen bases, and a .347 OBP (good for only 18th) he only scored 75 runs for the Sox. With his injury issues, falling out with management, and apparent middling status as a leadoff guy, I think he's overvalued and has a strong chance for buyer's remorse.
Alonso may not be a match for the Sox, why force it? We can just keep him in AAA for insurance and it would be more valuable than trading for Ellsbury, IMO. He'll perform there and retain some value. Or trade him in a package for a better player.