Originally Posted by RedsManRick
That's sort of the point. There's more than a touch of homerism in our thinking that Alonso is very highly valued. If he didn't have the 1st round pedigree, how much of a prospect would he be based on what he's done? He'd still be pretty well regarded, but would he considered a top prospect?
He's limited to 1B and not a defensive asset there. He doesn't have elite power. His upside is basically Billy Butler, right? Ellsbury has been an above average major league regular. Alonso has a shot at being an above average major league regular.
That sort of a trade lacks upside for the Red Sox. I could see that sort of a deal happening mid-season for a team trying to capitalize on an arb eligible guy before he gets expensive. But if you're the Sox, aren't you still gunning for a real impact guy at 1B, namely Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder? And isn't Ellsbury one of the, if not the, key chits there? I just don't see this making sense from the Sox perspective in light of the alternatives.
You might be right that the Red Sox would only want to use Ellsbury as a piece for a big expensive bat, but he wouldnt be the center point of the deal. His value has dropped significantly in the last year. He was injured and no one knows if he is fully recovered, plus, he seems to be closer to a league average CF than an above average one. He's projects, even if he comes back strong from his injury, to be a .750 OPS, league average defensive CF. That has a lot of value, but that places him in the middle of the pack of CF'ers.
Alonso does project to have power, remember he is coming off a hand injury and right about the time he was expected to show power again he did. There is one big difference between him and Lars. Alonso reached AAA, and dominated the second half of the season when he was fully healthy. Lars reached AAA and flopped.
I agree that Alonso only projects as a league average 1B, but he seems to be pretty much there already, he just needs to play regularly. I only see Ellsbury as more valuable because he plays a more valuable position. But they both are league average players, and Alonso is cheaper and under team control for three years longer.
Alonso might not be what the Red Sox are looking for, but value wise, they matchup pretty well.