Originally Posted by mth123
But a lot of Minor League 1B put up strong numbers. For every one that ends up like Votto, about a dozen become Sean Casey and about 1000 become Brad Eldred. The whole point is that assuming Alonso is going to become any more than run of the mill as 1B go is a longshot assumption. Why pass on dealing him for a chance to put the team over the top? Run of the Mill 1B are obtainable every year. IF he hits the Votto Lotto and becomes an MVP caliber guy so be it.
...Or, they could hang onto him and those gaudy (but really not so gaudy at this point) numbers could qualify him as the next Roberto Petagine. If the Reds were far away from winning or it was a harder to acquire position the math changes, but no real need to hold onto a 1B prospect who is far from a sure thing as far as becoming elite goes if dealing him gets the Reds closer to the big prize.
I agree, if it's for a clear upgrade, why not trade him now. But as I see it, we may be in a position with an Alonso / Gomes platoon where LF is .300 / .370 / .475 type of slash. It would be hard to replace that with Alonso alone, although there is much depth elsewhere to be dealt from as well. I may like to see this play out in LF, although something tells me Walt is paying lip service to the idea. They went to great lengths NOT to give Alonso a start in LF last year.