Originally Posted by Oxilon
Based on all the other award shows, I'd say every actor/actress award is already decided.
Best Actor: Colin Firth
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale
Best Actress: Natalie Portman
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo
I haven't seen any ceremony that has differed on those categories, and I don't expect the Oscars to be any different.
It will probably shake out that way, but Annette Benning could beat Portman and Melissa Leo and Amy Adams might do some vote splitting and someone else could win. Rush could beat Bale, but it is unlikely and Firth already has been sent the trophy.
Best picture will either be "Kings", "Social Network" or "Black Swan". My personal opinion is "Black Swan", but I think the "Social Network will end up taking it.