Originally Posted by reds1869
Regression toward the mean is simply a move towards the subject's natural tendency. The Charlotte game doesn't show a move towards X's typical result for the season, it shows a sudden dive through the floor. Unless darker days are in store than Charlotte performance it is simply an anomaly, not a regression to the mean. Of course, an improvement such as the Richmond beatdown could also be a regression toward the mean. In that case I would be thrilled to agree with you!
And thank your lucky stars you didn't watch the X/UNCC game. That was some eye-damaging basketball.
Well, another way of saying it all averages out. Before the Richmond game XU was shooting roughly 45.5% from the field. Against Richmond, they shot 26-53(49.1%) against Charlotte they shot 22-57(38.1%) At the end of the day, they're now shooting 45.3% from the field. If the Muskies were to shoot 23-46in their next game, they'd be back at exactly 45.5% for the season.
All semantics I suppose, but that's what I'm referring to, whatever XU's true mean, the individual numbers will bounce above and below that all season. The shooting against Charlotte was the 2nd worst game of the year percentage wise, but there has to be a 2nd worst game of every year for every team.