Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo
I bolded the ones I believe will be/are as good or better production wise than Yonder over the next 5 years or so strictly with the bat IF Yonder cuts down his swing a bit. There are a few I am on the fence about because I haven't studied them/their issues or lack thereof like Smoak, Morrison, Gaby Sanchez, Kila K., Rizzo and Viciedo. But others are fading (ex. Helton) or haven't shown enough yet (Soto) or I have seen enough and am not overly impressed (Butler, Ike Davis, Loney, Sandoval, Kotchman, Edwin) or not impressed at all (Francisco, Chris Davis, Brett Wallace, B. Allen, Borchering, Blanks). There are also some of those guys I don't know at all like Goldschmidt, Streiby, Trumbo.
Bottom line I would rate Alonso as a top 15-20 1B in all of pro ball right now because I believe he can hit for power, average & discipline with a bit of coaching. In fact I despise the fact the people want to pigeon hole the guy into a Sean Casey type of mold because he hasn't hit for tons of power in the minors...yet. I will blame all of that on his hand injury and assuming health I do expect him to hit for lots of power in Louisville this season, then the "experts" will give him a fast ascension up the ranks come mid season/late season.
The only question for me is can that translate to the bigs and none of these other big name prospects have proven that yet either. So until there is some seperation I will put him on the list if not near the top of it when it comes to minor league 1B prospects.
I think 15 to 20 is probably real close. So he's on the lower end of the middle range of starting caliber guys. Seems that 73rd best prospect in baseball is about right. There are lots of guys that you don't have bolded who are pretty close. I could argue that he's in the 20s somewhere, but the point doesn't change much. At some point, he becomes an interchangeable part (he's probably better than that and its why he's in the top 100 prospects). But guys who project to be pretty decent hitters like Brandon Allen and Lars Anderson probably don't have much more than journeyman careers as back-ups or stopgap starters on rebuilding teams. Guys like Lyle Overbay, Adam Laroche and James Loney are players that he's not really a lock to be better than and those are guys teams are continually looking to upgrade from.
It means he's not an All Star. He's not an MVP threat. He's not even in the top half of his position and there are dozens of alternatives who may not be much of a drop-off. How can we quibble with being the 73rd best prospect?
BTW, I'd probably slide him in at 23 on this list.