Goldstein sees Leake and Wood as middle-to-back-of-the rotation guys (Leake a 3-4; Wood a 4-5) , "but you need guys like that to win divisions.”
A guy from a Pirates blog reworked the old Hardball Times analysis about what teams should expect from each pitching slot, and he came up with this based on 2010 numbers:
#1 - 3.36 ERA or better
#2 - 3.36 - 3.88 ERA
#3 - 3.88 - 4.38 ERA
#4 - 4.38 - 5.15 ERA
#5 - 5.15 ERA or worse
So I think he's probably under-rating Wood, since a guy who definitely belongs in a major-league rotation -- as I believe Wood to be -- is (on a league-wide level) at least a #4. #5 starters are, almost by definition, not good enough to keep a job for very long.
Either of those two guys could potentially be better than a #3 but as to the distribution of "possible" versus "likely," it's hard to say.
Original article: http://www.piratesprospects.com/2010...tion-spot.html