Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1
You're right. Doesn't change the fact that Volquez has double the amount of BBs as Leake and has surrendered quite a few more home runs than Leake this year as well. Obviously, xFIP is not telling the whole story here.
xFIP isn't supposed to tell us how many HR's a pitcher has given up, just how many he is expected to give up.
That's it's point.
To show us that if Volquez continues to pitch like he has, the HR rate will come dome significantly.
xFIP does tell us what has occured. It tells us what likely should have occured based on things the pitcher has control over.