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Old 04-18-2011, 05:19 PM   #97
IslandRed
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Join Date: May 2001
Location: Mt. Juliet, TN
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Re: Projecting Janish

Quote:
Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
Well, ignoring that stats this early are pretty meaningless, he actually is hitting much better than he did pre-2010. His low OBP is due to the fact that he only has one walk.

Unless he and Gomes had a Freaky Friday incident where their batting eyes switched places, it's likely that his 2% walk rate will improve to his career 9%. If that happened, his OPS would be .741. Adjust his BABIP to his career average, and his OPS would be .700.

I think it's hard to say he has looked bad at the plate when he's hitting .313, with a .366 BABIP and a 25% LD rate. If anything, he has looked much better at the plate than expected, imo.
The walk rate will go up... but. Unless he starts putting some more charge in the ball, he won't be drawing many free passes that aren't of the OBP-propping-but-relatively-empty "bases empty, two outs, pitcher up next, no sense giving you something to hit" variety.
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