Originally Posted by JaxRed
The Jaguars situation..... I know no one talks about the Jags outside of Jax, so here's my glimpse of what our situation is.
It's all about the GM here. We suffered thru 6 seasons of a horrific GM in Shack Harris.
For the 2009 season we had a new GM faced with turning around a 5-11 franchise with as many arrests as the Bengals.
So first thing about GM Gene Smith: He believes in character guys. If Ryan Mallett was on the clock when we came up, Ryan Mallet would still be on the clock when the next team drafted.
Second, he believes in sure things for the big picks. If you have a guy with big upside but big questions... he'll go for the guy with less upside and more certainty. So if we were the #1 pick, Cam Newton would NOT be our choice.
He's only had 2 drafts, so you can't say what he is done is a "trend" but it's the only thing you have to go by.
In 2 drafts he has seemed to:
1. Concentrate on linemen from big programs in first 2 rounds
2. Hit one area hard each draft. (1st 2 picks were OL in 2009, drafted 5 DL in 2010)
3. Go for Lineman again in Round 3 but start picking from small schools.
4. From Round 3 and lower have a heavy emphasis on small schools
5. Lock in on certain guys, and be so determined to get them that he gives up extra picks to get them.
How has he done?
Well, he's taken us from 5-11, to 7-9 to 8-8. A nice turnaround, but some teams have done it more quickly. And one reason may be the "lock-in" fact.
When you're rebuilding you need lots of picks. In 2009 draft he gave up a 7th round pick and a 2010 2nd to pick a corner from William and Mary (Cox) that many considered to be a reach.
In 2010 despite saying he would like to trade down and get more picks, he turned down a trade that would have garnered more picks from SF, so he could pick Alualu, in another move that was considered a reach.
Now, Alualu was very good, and Cox has been ok, but extra picks might have been better.
All the players he has drafted are still on the roster. A few things factor into it, like how depleted the roster was, and he might favor his guys over Shacks guys. But it also means he's picked good players.
So our needs going into the draft at pick 16 (1st) and then 49 (2nd):
Defense. We were ranked 27th in points allowed and have big needs at DE, Linebacker and DBs.
Offense. We have an adequate but aging QB with none on horizon.
So you factor all that in it would appear that the Jags will not trade down, and will have their sights on a DL like Kerrigan, Watts or Jordan in Rnd 1.
At some point they will address the QB issue, and if Gene likes someone enough, will move up to get him. Possibilities: Ponder, Dalton, Caepernick, Stanzi, Locker) No Mallet.
Starting in Rnd 3, he''ll be more open to trading to get more picks and will pick lots of small school guys