Originally Posted by Krawhitham
Stubbs is walking 8% of the time and striking out 30% of the time
Right, and Stubbs plays very good defense and runs the bases extremely well. Stubbs' offensive game is a bit above average, but it's the other aspects of his game that elevate his overall value. If Stubbs were below average on defense and running the bases, he would probably be right around league average overall. Francisco is all bat, nothing more, and it's going to be hard for his bat to overcome his other shortcomings.
Plus, Stubbs' career MLB walk rate is 8.9%, and his career minors walk rate is even better. Francisco's career minor league walk rate is half that, sitting right at 4%. They aren't really comparable in their plate discipline. Stubbs sees over 4.00 pitches per plate appearance, whereas Francisco will never even come close to that mark -- in only 59 games at the major league level, he is seeing 3.81 P/PA. That number in itself is likely very inflated, as his MLB BB% is much higher than his minors BB% and is due for some regression, so that P/PA number will be a lot lower for his career. Juan Pierre walks at a similar rate to Francisco, and he has only seen 3.47 P/PA in his career; Francisco's will be a bit higher than that due to Pierre's excessive bunting, but not much higher.
There's seriously a lot of Wily Mo in this guy. Below average defense and baserunning skills, plus power, and below average plate discipline. Francisco will hit for a higher average, but to make up for his extremely poor plate discipline (as well as being below average in other aspects of the game), he will need to hit for a very high average, which is difficult to do while striking out 25% of the time. Not impossible, but very difficult, as it requires the hitter to post a very high BABIP. Francisco's BABIP so far at the majors if .413 -- a number that is nowhere close to sustainable by anyone -- and yet he still has a .295 average. His career minors BABIP is high, sitting around .335 or so, but it's going to have to be even higher for that to hit well above .300, and I just don't see him doing this. Francisco can be an average major league player thanks to his plus power, but I just can't see him ever being much more than that. Hopefully he ends up proving me wrong.