Originally Posted by Benihana
That's why I said, LeCure will be lucky to ever throw 175 IP of a sub-4 ERA in one season, for his entire career. Guthrie will very likely provide it for this year and next.
I disagree with this statement. As a flyball pitcher in GABP and on the wrong side of 30, I don't think he's likely to put up 175 IP of a sub-4 ERA. It's certainly a possibility, but I don't think it's a greater than 50% chance. But furthermore, it's not just about Guthrie. It about the cost to acquire him. It's about Guthrie vs. the alternatives -- both performance and cost. Guthrie at $8-10M in 2012 or Travis Wood/Sam LeCure? Is Guthrie likely to be 2 wins better than the guy he'll replace in 2012? I don't think so.
I think you're comparing his upside to our guys' downside. Again, in a bubble, i take the guy. But if I'm trading away 6 years of Alonso and 5 of Wood, I want more than a year and a half of an innings eater .