Originally Posted by MikeThierry
As was said numerous times in the Scoreboard Thread, its coming from both sides. If someone brings up a topic such as "oh there are those dang Cards regressing to the means", I'm not going to sit back and have that go unchallenged. Its the point of a discussion board. To debate topics. If the definition of "hijacking" a thread is responding to a point, than everyone here is guilty of hijacking threads.
Anyway, getting to your original point, the Cards have done well enough thus far to stay in the division race so you might think its all smoke and mirrors but since we are half way through the year essentially it would be silly to underestimate them. This is especially true when the management of the Cardinals has a history of dealing chips to bolster their team. If the Cards were to acquire someone of Heath Bell's stature before the trade deadline, that would give them a great chance to compete in a weak division.
I also know that nobody here is sold on David Freese but he is a huge boon to the lineup. His impact since he has come back from the DL has already been felt. If Matt Holliday continues to produce, David Freese continues to produce, Colby Rasmus somehow finds a way to stop doing his best impression of Jay Bruce and being a streaky hitter, and Theriot continues to be a solid leadoff guy I think the Cards will be primed to make a run in August once Pujols comes back.
Last year, many Cards fans stupidly felt the same way about the Reds. That they were over achieving, playing above their heads, etc. Where were those fans at the end of the season? At home watching the Reds win the division and have a shot at a championship. I would caution Reds fans into thinking the Cards are all smoke and mirrors and hoping they will just falter. Hope generally doesn't reflect reality.
First, did I accuse you in particular of hijacking? I just said it was getting hijacked. No reason to take that personally. It takes two to tango, so clearly if the thread was getting derailed, it wasn't all one person. It doesn't even matter who was doing it. Just pointing out that it was happening, and so I figured I'd start a thread dedicated to the topic since it was coming up.
Bell would be a nice acquisition, but I think the Cards' have more pressing issues. Their inability to finish games has been noted, but so too has been their holes at second and short, their mediocre rotation 3-5 (Lohse is outperforming his FIP by nearly an entire run something I'm sure you will take issue with) and worst of all, the Cardinals are in the bottom quadrant of baseball at Defensive Efficiency Ratio.
Put it all together, and the Cardinals have a lot of problems.
I think, as far as Freese is concerned, it's more that you're overrating him than anyone is underrating him. He's a 28-year old with 400 career plate appearances, a .352 wOBA -- which is mostly fueled by an extremely unsustainable .400 career BABIP. Give him a full season (which seems unlikely given his propensity for injuries), and he's likely to have a modest OPS in the lower to mid .700's which is essentially average.
As far as your last comment, "Last year, many Cards fans stupidly felt the same way about the Reds. That they were over achieving, playing above their heads, etc
. Where were those fans at the end of the season? At home watching the Reds win the division and have a shot at a championship. I would caution Reds fans into thinking the Cards are all smoke and mirrors and hoping they will just falter. Hope generally doesn't reflect reality."
You want to know why this isn't even remotely comparable?
Reds 2010 run differential on June 30: +78
Cards 2011 run differential on June 30: +24
Cardinals' fans not taking the Reds' seriously by this point were truly digging their heads in the sand. The Cardinals are a decent team, but now they're a decent team without its best player for the next month or more. And they already had holes as it were.
That run differential between last year's Reds and this year's Cardinals' team is pretty distinctive.