Originally Posted by MikeThierry
That doesn't mean there can't be logical discussion on the issues. You may hate the Cards but analysis such as "oh they are just regressing to the means" isn't exactly the most thought out thought process I have seen. Brutus does an excellent job of detailing why he thinks the Cards won't last. The whole analysis of "regressing to the means" that you constantly bring up is frankly weak. For example, in one of McClellans starts it was commented on as the regression to the means argument. It was a rather lazy analysis because in that start, McClellan came back from the DL and made some minor adjustments to his wind-up. There are very few pitchers who are sharp coming back from the DL esp. if they are figuring out a new delivery to the plate. Yeah you can criticize the Cards all you want. I have no problem with it and expect it on a Reds board. However if you are going to do it at least bring something of substance to the plate.
It's well known that Carpenter has been pitching beter than his results and McClennan has been pitching much worse than his results. Based on things like xFIP.
So McClennan starting to pitch poorly or Carpenter having good results is exactly that; expected as they find their to their norms.
For posters who understand saberstats, that's actually fairly detailed. It's consistent with what I've been saying for awhile, so it's not a surprise that rhey are going in opposite directions. I said the same thing before Salas started giving up HR's every game.