Originally Posted by PuffyPig
It's well known that Carpenter has been pitching beter than his results and McClennan has been pitching much worse than his results. Based on things like xFIP.
So McClennan starting to pitch poorly or Carpenter having good results is exactly that; expected as they find their to their norms.
For posters who understand saberstats, that's actually fairly detailed. It's consistent with what I've been saying for awhile, so it's not a surprise that rhey are going in opposite directions. I said the same thing before Salas started giving up HR's every game.
Look, I understand saberstats. I just don't agree with some of the premises of those stats. Now when it comes to defense, I will take saberstats over traditional stats every day of the week and twice on Sunday. The Dewan +/- system, UZR, etc just tell give you a better outlook on defense than some random scorekeeper does. Even with such advanced stats like wOBA and BABIP I don't have much of a problem. The two stats in which I feel are a bit questionable though are FIP and WAR. Both stats I feel don't accurately measure the worth of a given player. I feel they can be useful tools just like batting average or OBP can be a useful tool but shouldn't be the end all in a conversation. Just because a pitcher has a high FIP and a low ERA doesn't mean he is a worthless pitcher or will regress to some sort of mean. There are plenty of examples where the FIP and ERA do not match up but at the end of the year a pitcher will have an excellent year. It just isn't or shouldn't be a rule, like many here are making it out to be, that if a pitcher has a low ERA and a higher FIP that he will somehow not have a great year in the end.
By the way, Salas has given up 3 HR in 36 innings pitched. In retrospect, Cordero has given up 3 in 35.1 innings pitched, Hudson Street has given up 7 HR in 38 innings pitched, Fransisco Rodriguez has given up 3 HR in 37.2 innings pitch, etc. By no means am I comparing Salas to those closers. The point is though that closers will give up some home runs. Salas is still very young and is closing for the first time. The ability is there but there will be some bumps along the way. Thus far though he has been a stabilizing pitcher in the back of the bullpen. He also certainly isn't giving up a home run every game like you are describing.