Re: 2011 - Gonelong's 10th annual Season Ws prediction thread .
I believe the Reds will regress this year. Starting out with three of the five starters not ready to go and Leake not really earning a rotation spot, I think things will be tough to start. This division is going to be tight and the slow start is going to cost these guys.
An 83-79 finish does not win the Central.
I predict Dusty will be under the gun on this board as he was last year when things were less than comfortable. I see lots of player personnel movement up and down the chain as there will be early struggles and some discontentment as reality sets in. The team will regroup and get healthy going into the second half but can't make up the woes of the first two months of the season.
Winning the division last year was not a surprise to me as I thought they were better than most pundits did. I said last year that I thought this year was their year to really break out. But now I am very concerned with the rotation starting out in the mode they will be, very iffy.
Look for some moves at the trade deadline that will clear the picture for coming years regarding the logjam of some positions in the chain. I believe by years end that two of the five starters will be gone from this club.