Re: Sun Deck's Gonelong 2011 Season Win Prediction Thread
Sorry I think the Reds over-performed last year.
1. I don't think the pitching will hold up.
2. Bruce is being talked about as an MVP candidate. Remember around the All-Star break and for about a month later, some people were calling for him to be benched or sent down. I think he will have a good year, but I don't think he has a proven track record yet.
3. Joey Votto had a career year. He is a legit superstar, but it is not a given he can do that 2 years in a row.
4. The rest of the IF doesn't impress me as standout (I know most would disagree on Phillips).
5. Sorry, I can't see the team winning as long as Johnny Gomes is in LF.
6. Drew Stubbs still has a .330 OBP and hasn't shown much more in the spring.
Expect the Reds to start out slow. I think there will be (and their best hope is) some serious changes around May. I think Bruce will be good in the OF, but Stubbs and Gomes will struggle. Votto should still be solid.
Somebody in the pitching staff really needs to step up and be the ace and a second pitcher is going to need to be right behind him. The bullpen hopefully will be improved, and Chapman could be a major player if the Reds are to repeat or improve. You can't win a Championship without at least 2 standout top-notch pitchers.
I think the team as it is right now is a 79-81 team. If they make some good moves and a couple of guys step up, I could see them in the NLCS and after that, anything is possible. The nice thing for the Reds is they do have some good young talent.