Re: Reds Top Prospects - August 2011 Edition
I like Lutz better than Duran. Duran, to me, is a mistake hitter, meaning if the pitcher leaves a ball in one spot and only one spot, Duran will hit it a country mile. As long as the pitcher keeps it out of Duran's wheelhouse, Duran can't hit it.
For him to cut down on his strikeouts sounds a little simpler than it is because as he moves up, pitches that are left in that small area where he can hit it are going occur less frequently (although there are mistake hitters in the big leagues--they just have a larger area that they can cover). Lutz is faster than Duran and a much better defensive player and gets a big edge on work ethic/willingness to improve. Lutz's game power is very good.
The thing that Duran has going for him in terms of benefit of the doubt is his age, although there are many far better players in the league of the same age (see Rymer Liriano of Fort Wayne). I am not giving up on him but he needs to improve a lot to be taken seriously as a player that can ever play effectively at the Double-A level or higher.