Re: Which players won't be with the Reds on OD 2012
Renteria won't be back unless he's being paid Fred Lewis money or getting a minor league contract. With Cozart around to provide a competent offense/defense combo and Janish cheap and under team control, Renteria doesn't have a place.
Bailey looks to be a centerpiece of any deal in the works, but I since I don't see any major deal happening this offseason, he stays.
Stubbs stays without a doubt. He's our only steal threat, and Dusty appears in no way ready to hand the job to Sappelt or Heisey.
Votto stays until the middle of next season at the earliest. No one is counting these Reds out as contenders for next year, with the young talent we still have. He won't fetch much while Pujols and Fielder remain on the market.
Hernandez should be on the list, since the handoff to Mesoraco shouldn't be taken for granted. Also, some have speculated that Hernandez would decline arbitration in favor of a long term contract, and a supplemental pick must sound favorable to a team that's graduating most of its high-level prospects. I'd give him a 1 in 3 chance of coming back.
I believe that Volquez makes the team as a fifth starter in 2012. There are enough loose cannons in this future rotation (Arroyo and Wood's drop-off, Bailey's injuries, Chapman's uncertain move) and poor options in the upper minors that having enough rotation candidates is essential.
Phillips is the big mystery. We have no other good options at second base; Valaika is a replacement part at best, and all of our other infielders are better trained as third basemen. Letting Phillips go would set that position back for years to come, as our next potential options are still in Dayton and wont be here til 2014 at the earliest. For all we know, they could burn out as well. Phillips would be getting quite a paycheck though; 12 million if the option is picked up, likely more if offered arbitration or exposed to free agency. I see the option being picked up as the org guns for the playoff next season; however, the idea of a LTC is a nebulous one for a player that has lost as much speed and power as he has over the years.