Quote:
Originally Posted by RedsManRick
I don't doubt he's improved. But he has a .430 BABIP. That is massively unsustainable regardless of how good a hitter he is right now. I may have said organization, but I might have well as said the universe. Looking at true talent, what we can reasonable expect from a guy moving forward, the highest BABIP in the majors over the last 3 years (1500 PA) is Votto at .366. Only 3 other guys are at .350+.
Even if he's suddenly a world-class line drive hitter like Votto, Wright, Upton, Choo, and Bruan (the highest BABIP guys who aren't doing it with speed), he's still 70+ points above sustainable. If he's merely a very good major league hitter, he's 100+ above sustainable. And if he's average, he's 130 points above it. And that's more than 25% of his hits which will go away when he regresses.
So again, yeah, it looks like he's improved. But he's playing way over his head and there is no denying that.
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If you are right, and I think you mostly are, that would put his adjusted OPS at about .740 based on some rough math. That's a pretty different picture thst mskes his 2011 look a lot like his 2010 including a roughly .315 OBP and a roughly .425 SLG.
I wonder if he's been in demand on the trade market. Seems like a sell high candidate to me. A different GM might take advantage of that. Of course in Cincy not much will happen.