Originally Posted by RedsManRick
I don't doubt he's improved. But he has a .430 BABIP. That is massively unsustainable regardless of how good a hitter he is right now. I may have said organization, but I might have well as said the universe. Looking at true talent, what we can reasonable expect from a guy moving forward, the highest BABIP in the majors over the last 3 years (1500 PA) is Votto at .366. Only 3 other guys are at .350+.
Even if he's suddenly a world-class line drive hitter like Votto, Wright, Upton, Choo, and Bruan (the highest BABIP guys who aren't doing it with speed), he's still 70+ points above sustainable. If he's merely a very good major league hitter, he's 100+ above sustainable. And if he's average, he's 130 points above it. And that's more than 25% of his hits which will go away when he regresses.
So again, yeah, it looks like he's improved. But he's playing way over his head and there is no denying that.
I don't think anybody is saying that he has suddenly become a .370 hitter, or a .350 hitter, or even a .320 hitter. My contentions were based on your original statement: "Same guy, flukish results."
I simply have a hard time denying the possibility that something has clicked in this guy, that he's a different player than he was last year when he was hitting .228 in Carolina. Since you're now saying, "I don't doubt he's improved," it appears that we're getting pretty close to the same page.