Originally Posted by RedsManRick
Just curious, but hasn't the Verducci rule been more or less debunked as a useful standard? That's not to say a guy should shift from 60 innings to 220, but what's the real source of the 30 per year rule of thumb?
Why not just use some basic biometrics to monitor the guy? If/when he shows that he's weakening, taking longer to recover, etc., or if it's showing in his execution, then shut him down. But it just strikes me as odd that teams would be so reigmented and beholden to a number like that.
I'm all for being cautious with young arms. But I'd have my starters on a long toss program over the winter to maintain arm strength and would have a thorough monitoring system in place to protect my investments.
i agree that a strict innings limit may not be needed. however, as you point out a pitcher shouldn't ramp up his innings unreasonably. i suspect that if Chapman has thrown 125 innings max in his career (and that would have been ~2009) that asking him to throw 200+ next year isn't a good idea. maybe they could pencil him in for so many starts then start watching him closely about 75% of the way through the season. if/when he starts to look tired they can shut him down if the team is out of contention or maybe rest him a bit then move him to the pen if the team is in contention.