Originally Posted by mdccclxix
First, there's a good chance that neither of them work out that well. Second, there is a chance that just one of them will. Third, there is a chance that both work out well.
To me the chances that it's Mez or Grandal are very similar. Just being 1 year ahead of the other doesn't really mean much to me for the Red's purposes.
Besides whether Mez is the difference between Felix or Shields, say, I think the variable that says the Reds actually like Grandal better is actually just as likely as them liking Mez better. Or they just can't make up their minds. Who wouldn't believe that?
Nevertheless, trading one of them this offseason seems like the right thing to do when you consider:
1) Mez doesn't work out and
Yas doesn't work out
2) Mez works out or
Yas works out
3) Mez works out and
Yas work out
1 out of 6 scenarios would produce regret, if the Reds trade the one who works out. Both values are very high, Mez's is higher. If the Reds actually like Grandal as much or more, they should definitely trade Mez for a great return if it's available.
If there isn't a good deal for the Reds, a "Carson Palmer" type deal let's say, I won't mind keeping both, either. I've said before that Grandal can be a stop gap, if not a real solution, at 1b in 2014, batting right behind Mesoraco, our cleanup hitter.
I'm not against keeping them both, at all. We saw what happened to the Rangers and their supposed glut of catching (though I wouldn't mind getting Mike Napoli for a mediocre reliever). But if you're trading one and both return good value, I'm keeping the guy who has crushed AAA pitching over a full season and has better reviews defensively.
The difference between them isn't just "one year". In his age 22 season, Mes hit .302/.377/.587, .964 OPS with 26 HR. Grandal hit .305/.401/.500 with 14 HR. But more to the point, Mes went out this year and was very solid in AAA. We can't simply assume Grandal will do the same. Yes, he's potentially 1 year away from being close to where Mes is now. But there's a very real chance he won't be.
At the plate, I'm not sure Grandal has the power you'd typically like to see out of 1B. He's still got a very good bat that would likely play just about anywhere, but he loses a good chunk of value moving off catcher. Of course, that's a problem I'd like to have.
At the end of the day, you can make a similar argument with any decent prospect. Let's not trade him because it might come back to haunt us. But this is a team poised to succeed. Mes can be a part of that this year. Grandal cannot. If it came to it, if we can get a piece that would help us a lot, trading Mes would hurt our 2012 roster, blunting the benefit of acquiring that other player. Trading Grandal wouldn't. I'm not leading trade offers with Grandal, but I definitely wouldn't let a deal fizzle out over including him.