Originally Posted by mth123
So far, against Major League hitters, he's been pretty good when he comes in and gives it all he's got for about 15 to 20 pitches. When he's not throwing 100 MPH, he gets hit. As a starter, he won't be working in that range. He'll probably be throwing 95 to 97 and when he does that now he gets hit hard. He wasn't even a good starter in AAA. Its going to take him a while to have the type of pitch selection that can fool major league hitters twice through a line-up (let alone 3 times). Add that he's never topped 120 innings in a season and he's not ready for the workload.
As for Bailey and Volquez, its not bad to have more than 5 starters, but if Chapman is in the rotation, those guys won't be good options for relief IMO. I think it takes them too long to warm up and Volquez control and first inning woes will make him useless. I don't see Bailey being on the team if he's not in the rotation. The 2012 Reds are a better team with Bailey in that 5th starter spot and Chapman in the bullpen and I could care less about the Reds grooming Chapman just for some other team to get the benfits when he blows town. He's a weapon as is that can help them win. I think he'll be a negative in the rotation.
Chapman has not been hit hard yet in his time in the majors. His problem has been his control, for a one week period in May. Other than that four game bout of wildness, he was dominant last season. Including that week, he held batters to this slashline:
If the Reds stretch him out and have him compete for the starting job in spring training, there is no downside. First, chance are, between Cueto, Leake, Arroyo, Bailey, Volquez, Wood, Champan and anyone new brought in, only 5 will be healthy when the season starts. Remember last season when the Reds had "too many" starters in spring, only to start Chad Reineke in May?
But even if everyone is healthy, if Chapman isn't ready to start, they either send him to the minors or the pen. If he is, and he beats out Bailey and Volquez, then you trade Bailey and Volquez. Now, that only happens if they aren't good enough to win a spot in the rotation, so who cares?
If you don't stretch out Chapman, then all he can do is relieve, which means you are stuck with Bailey or Volquez, even if they aren't very good.
Stretching out Chapman is simply about creating more options, and if he isn't ready to start, it's no great loss.