[mth123]

Originally Posted by 757690

Chapman has not been hit hard yet in his time in the majors. His problem has been his control, for a one week period in May. Other than that four game bout of wildness, he was dominant last season. Including that week, he held batters to this slashline:

.147/.325/.209/.534

If the Reds stretch him out and have him compete for the starting job in spring training, there is no downside. First, chance are, between Cueto, Leake, Arroyo, Bailey, Volquez, Wood, Champan and anyone new brought in, only 5 will be healthy when the season starts. Remember last season when the Reds had "too many" starters in spring, only to start Chad Reineke in May?

But even if everyone is healthy, if Chapman isn't ready to start, they either send him to the minors or the pen. If he is, and he beats out Bailey and Volquez, then you trade Bailey and Volquez. Now, that only happens if they aren't good enough to win a spot in the rotation, so who cares?

If you don't stretch out Chapman, then all he can do is relieve, which means you are stuck with Bailey or Volquez, even if they aren't very good.

Stretching out Chapman is simply about creating more options, and if he isn't ready to start, it's no great loss.

Stretching him out is fine. Penciling him in is not. They aren't going to know based on spring training whether he should beat out Bailey for the last spot. So they either give it to him or not. If they wait until Spring and then decide, they'll probably have to give Bailey away. They should have stretched Chapman out in Mid August and gave him 5 or 6 starts at the end of the year against Major League hitters with a deep bullpen from expanded rosters backing him if they were trying to make a judgement. Seems to me they aren't going to have any more information than they do right now whether or not Chapman can handle starting until they put him in the rotation. I think the idea that Chapman is being stretched out to start means the decision has already been made. I think a bullpen sans Chapman is weaker than one wiith him, I think a rotation with Chapman in the 5th spot over Bailey is weaker than one with Bailey instead and, finally, if they pass on bringing some one in and have both Chapman and Bailey in the rotation, its akin to punting 2012. I suspect that final option is the option we'll see and its not enough to address this team's issues.